Ballon d'Or: The case for Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and the main favourites assessed

With a month left until the Ballon d'Or 2026 winner is announced in London on October 26, will favourite Harry Kane lift the trophy on home soil or will Lamine Yamal become the youngest winner in the award's history?

We've assessed all the runners and riders for the most prestigious personal gong in football...

Harry Kane: Goals, goals, goals

Harry Kane set the record to become the fastest player to 100 goals in the history of the Bundesliga earlier this month.

He didn't just set it, he smashed it, reaching his ton in 98 games - 31 faster than the previous holder, Dieter Muller, whose record had stood for almost half a century.

That was underpinned by the most prolific scoring season of his entire career in 2025/26, netting 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga matches as well as 14 in 13 Champions League matches and, if that wasn't enough, a further 12 strikes for England including six at the World Cup.

Already the best No 9 in the world, Kane has somehow found a way to hit new heights even in his 30s.

Scoring 73 goals in 65 games is, simply, mindblowing. And a fitting reward for maintaining his fitness better than he ever has before - having arrived at previous international tournaments already clearly burnt out.

Others may have picked up bigger team honours but for an individual award, there has been no player in better form on the planet. And what better time to pick up the award than in his home town when the winner is crowned at the London Palladium next month?
Ron Walker

Lamine Yamal: The greatest showman

The case for the poster boy of the World Cup champions winning the Ballon d'Or does go a long way to making itself. Not that it's stopped Lamine Yamal from quite publicly adding to it, saying this week the award should go to a "unique" player and was not all about goals.

Whether that was a slight on his main rival Kane or not, Lamine Yamal is in esteemed company in his aims of lifting the greatest personal accolade in world football with five of the last seven winners in World Cup years coming from teams who reached the final.

Though goals might not be top of Lamine Yamal's mind, he will point to his own career-best scoring feats of 25 strikes for club and country across 2025/26, including three in the Champions League knock-out stages. That made him the youngest-ever player to reach the 40-goal tally for Barca, an impressive feat considering the esteemed company he sits among.

Only one of those quarter-century of goals came at the World Cup but his tournament, much like his season, was not lacking in the kind of entertainment, energy and stepovers which he feels, and many will agree, should lead to a Ballon d'Or victory.

He would become the youngest ever winner should he get his hands on the trophy in October but that should count for him, rather than against him, given the feats he has hit while spending every game bar the World Cup semi-final and final as an 18-year-old last season.

If you're good enough, you're old enough - and there's already no question in this case.
Ron Walker

Kylian Mbappe: Give the World Cup all-time top goalscorer his dues

This one feels like it has to be inevitable at some point, right?

The fact that Kylian Mbappe has competed in two World Cup finals - one of which he won and the other he scored a hat-trick in - and still has yet to be recognised as the best player in the world, seems incredible.

The heir apparent to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo is still waiting. Could this be his year?

So far this calendar year, the Frenchman has scored 31 goals, including 10 during a record-breaking World Cup campaign where he became the competition's all-time top scorer.

While Les Bleus' elimination in the semi-final and subsequent defeat to England in the third-place play-off may hurt his chances, he is arguably the most high-profile player to never win it.

Surely his crowning moment has to come sooner rather than later? And perhaps his exploits over the summer will be enough. He certainly seems to think it will.

"I made a lot of history this summer in the biggest competition in the world," he said when probed about his chances.

"I have a feeling it could be a good year for that [to win the Ballon d'Or]."
Callum Bishop

Rodri: The best player at the World Cup

Rodri's Ballon d'Or chances looked remote at the end of an injury-hit domestic season in which he only made 22 Premier League and Champions League starts for Manchester City.

But it doesn't get any bigger than the World Cup. Spain's winning captain in the summer, and the recipient of the Golden Ball prize as the best player of the tournament, demands serious consideration.

Winning the World Cup's best player award helped Luka Modric clinch the Ballon d'Or in 2018 and Rodri, while not the favourite, is entitled to feel he has a shot of repeating that feat and winning the coveted prize for a second time after his 2024 success.
Nick Wright

Ousmane Dembele: The reigning champion keeping it consistent

Ousmane Dembele entered the year with the difficult task of following up his 2025 Ballon d'Or triumph, but another influential campaign at Paris Saint-Germain has put him firmly in contention to win the prize.

The France forward has scored 20 times for PSG and played a key role as Luis Enrique's side retained the Champions League, including scoring in the final against Arsenal. He carried that form into the World Cup too, registering six goals and two assists as France reached the semi-finals.

Winning successive Ballon d'Or awards is a rare feat, but Dembele has built a compelling case. Another European crown, combined with his most productive major international tournament, means the reigning holder has plenty of reasons to believe he can keep hold of the trophy.
Isaac Kinghorn-Eastlake

Bruno Fernandes: The assist record breaker

In the last 20 years, there have been just two Premier League players to win the Ballon d'Or. Rodri was the most recent in 2024. The other was a Portuguese star who was the focal point of everything good about Manchester United's attack.

That was, of course, Cristiano Ronaldo in 2008. However, that same description can be used to describe Bruno Fernandes last season.

Admittedly, the fact that United didn't play in Europe or win a major trophy last season does not help Fernandes' cause. However, it didn't stop him from sweeping up the honours in English football.

If anything, the fact he is part of the current Manchester United side and not the one Ronaldo had the benefit of playing with in 2008 should give him more credit. A record-breaking 21 assists would've been impressive in a title-winning team, let alone one that had finished 15th the year before.

Had he lifted the World Cup, Fernandes' case would've been among the strongest. But, when talking about individual campaigns, very few had the same impact as the 'Portuguese magnifico's'.
Callum Bishop

Erling Haaland: The goal machine should be closer to favourites

I will state from the outset that I believe there to be more worthy Ballon d'Or candidates than Erling Haaland for this year's prize. But I also believe he should be higher in the pecking order, closer to the coveted trophy than many assume him to be.

No doubt he will be a recipient of this award in years to come. Probably more than once. At his projected pace, he will beat both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo to 1,000 career goals.

That would be an astonishing feat.

I also think he deserves more credit for the talismanic figure he has developed into at such a young age, only just turned 26.

He was king of the Vikings for Norway this summer. He's been transformational for the Premier League since he joined in 2022. Revolutionary for Manchester City's cause, too. 169 goals in 205 appearances is a freakishly ridiculous rate at which to score goals.

It may not be now, but you are looking at a Ballon d'Or winner of future generations.
Laura Hunter

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: The Champions League's best player as PSG retain title

Winning the Ballon d'Or in a World Cup year when your country did not make it to the World Cup is virtually impossible but Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has a shot. That is because he was the best player in the Champions League last season and it was not close.

Nobody scored more goals than Kvaratskhelia in the knockout stages of the tournament, while he finished the campaign with the most assists from open play too. The Georgia international has been the catalyst behind Paris Saint-Germain's ascent.

They were a fine team with Bradley Barcola on the left wing. Kvaratskhelia made PSG better, a ceaseless energy that upped their pressing game and added quality too. You can find out more about why he would be a worthy winner of the Ballon d'Or here.
Adam Bate

(c) Sky Sports 2026: Ballon d'Or: The case for Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and the main favourites assessed