Could Andy Burnham be a serious threat to Sir Keir Starmer?

He's the Greater Manchester mayor who is not afraid to speak his mind - and has been rumoured to have been considering a return to Westminster politics for a while.

But, those rumours have ramped up recently following the resignation of deputy PM Angela Rayner over her tax affairs and the sacking of the UK's ambassador to the US Lord Mandelson over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.

The resignation of Number 10's director of strategy, Paul Ovenden, over sexually explicit messages he sent about MP Diane Abbott, and accusations the PM's top aide, Morgan McSweeney, failed to declare more than £700,000 in donations, have not helped.

Mr Burnham has fuelled rumours he is plotting a leadership challenge after saying Labour MPs are privately urging him to do so, refusing to rule out a Westminster return, and setting out a manifesto of policies to "turn the country around".

"People have contacted me throughout the summer - yeah," the former minister told The Telegraph recently, when asked if Labour MPs had encouraged him to try to challenge Sir Keir.

"I'm not going to say to you that that hasn't happened.

"But as I say, it's more a decision for those people than it is for me."

He added: "I stood twice to be leader of the Labour Party. And I think that tells you, doesn't it?"

King of the North

A former minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Mr Burnham unsuccessfully tried to become Labour leader in 2010 (Ed Miliband won) and in 2015 (Jeremy Corbyn won), then stood down as an MP to (successfully) become Greater Manchester's mayor in 2017.

Known as the "King of the North", having been re-elected as mayor three times, under his leadership, Manchester's economy has grown faster than any major UK city outside London.

He has also become well-known for being at odds with Sir Keir, criticising his welfare cuts plan, calling for a grooming gangs national inquiry, and urging the government not to water down the Hillsborough Law.

In May, he gave a speech at a Compass event, a soft-left (or middle) Labour grouping, where he said Labour's mission should be to be a "unifying, popular left", not a "divisive, popular right", and gave an alternative to Rachel Reeves' fiscal rules.

Mainstream

In early September, he helped launch Mainstream, a soft-left campaign group described as the "new home for Labour's radical realists" - a "democratic socialist alternative".

The group is aimed at changing how Labour operates, but could be turned into a leadership campaign.

It kicked off its existence with a punchy reaction to Lord Mandelson's sacking, with Mainstream's national coordinator, Luke Hurst, accusing Sir Keir of running a "narrow and brittle political project".

This was interpreted by some as a direct challenge to Sir Keir by Mr Burnham as, even though the words did not come from him, he is backing the group.

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Burnham would need to be an MP

Mainstream did not want to comment on whether the mayor is planning on challenging Sir Keir for the top job.

They also did not want to tell Sky News whether they would help him to win a by-election, something Mr Burnham would need to do to become an MP again, a stipulation of becoming prime minister.

Mr Burnham would need an MP to stand down for him to try to become an MP before a general election, to then challenge Sir Keir.

It is understood Gorton and Denton MP Andrew Gwynne, who sits as an independent after his Labour suspension, was possibly standing down but is no longer - so his seat is currently out of the question.

If a by-election did come up, Mr Burnham would have to quit as mayor, which he has promised to do until 2028, then would need the backing of Labour's National Executive Committee (and probably Sir Keir) to stand, and would most likely have to battle Reform to win.

If he lost, it is unlikely he could go back to being mayor.

But if he did become an MP, he would then need 20% of Labour MPs to nominate him to challenge Sir Keir, ahead of getting support from unions and local Labour groupings, and then members.

Mr Burnham told BBC Radio Manchester he had told MPs urging him to challenge Sir Keir, "it's not up to me, that's a matter for you, the party in parliament", but said there needs to be a "proper plan for the country and a proper plan to beat Reform".

Keeping everyone guessing, he added he has "no intention of just abandoning" Manchester.

Is Burnham as PM a reality?

The question is, if Mr Burnham becomes an MP does he stand a serious chance of challenging Sir Keir?

Mr Burnham is seen to reach across the party, from hard left to left of centre, something Sir Keir has struggled with, as evidenced by the welfare rebellion.

The Greater Manchester mayor is also seen as a good communicator, both in public and private - again, something that has let Sir Keir down, most recently with the timing of what he knew and when over Lord Mandelson's friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.

Keep an eye on Burnham

Asked about whether Mr Burnham should come back as an MP, minister Peter Kyle gave a big hint as to how many view him.

He told Sky News' Trevor Phillips on Sunday: "He's a real talent and I think he's doing an incredible job in Manchester at the moment. It would be a shame for Manchester to lose him."

Trevor said Mr Kyle's comments translate to: "Andy, if you're thinking about coming back to the House of Commons and putting yourself forward as a potential successor to Keir, stop thinking about it.

"Make sure you keep an eye on Andy Burnham."

Timing, as ever, is also key.

His allies have said he needs to become an MP "asap" - by next May, when local elections are, because that will signal what voters think of the Labour Party and its leader.

Mr Burnham said it was "for other people in Westminster to make a decision" about whether he runs again for the leadership, but insisted he was not "plotting to get back".

If he does make the jump to become an MP, the popular politician could pose a significant threat to Sir Keir - but it will not be a quick or easy process.

(c) Sky News 2025: Could Andy Burnham be a serious threat to Sir Keir Starmer?