Hitting the chief minister's 100,000 population target would need immigration levels to double and remain stable for more than a decade.
That's the conclusion of the government's first annual population report, which gives details about the number of people living on, moving to and moving away from the Island.
Last July, Alf Cannan unveiled an economic strategy which called for 100,000 people to be living here by 2035.
But the new report says to hit that figure, "net migration would have to be around twice the level it's estimated to have been in 2022 and remain constant for all subsequent years".
Weather warning for snow tonight
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Gales put two ferry sailings at risk tonight
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Warning issued over icy roads
High ground could see 4 inches of snow on Saturday night
Mountain Road unlikely to open before Monday
Yellow warning for freezing temperatures tonight